What happened after an options trade, and what is only historical expectation?
EFI Options Flow separates the observed stock path from historical comparable outcomes and option-return diagnostics. A confirmed First or Next Move belongs to the underlying price path; an option's profit or loss cannot resolve that movement.
A useful read order
- Start with the path
Read the underlying chart, original entry, persisted strike roles, and the trader's directional thesis.
- Read the state
EXPECTED is a historical lean; RESOLVED is this trade's observed result. PENDING means neither is available.
- Inspect the cases
Check the economically deduped cohort, contributing case count, exclusions, and any widened comparison tier.
Pump and discount follow the thesis
PUMP means movement in the trader's main direction; DISCOUNT means movement against it. For a bearish thesis, a falling stock is a pump. PRIMARY and SECONDARY are persisted strike roles, not independent synonyms for favorable and adverse.
First Move is measured from original entry using the frozen pre-entry ATR contract. A qualifying completed close can resolve it; an intraday breach additionally needs the specified strike-zone and trustworthy ordering evidence. A sub-ATR strike touch alone is context.
Historical odds and option diagnostics
One economic trade contributes one observation even if uploaded more than once. Comparable packages must satisfy economic-structure requirements. First/Next movement cohorts pool eligible absolute DTEs, while current-entry review has a separate terminal-cohort contract.
Next Move follows the later qualifying opposite stock event. Physical tags and completed-close directional thresholds retain their evidence rules. Option shadows and user paper receipts stay separate from this stock-path truth. Fewer than three resolved comparisons are labeled low sample; timing requires at least three dated cases matching the relevant outcome and signature.
What this cannot establish
- Flow is not a complete view of an institution's intent or portfolio.
- Historical cohort percentages describe contributing cases, not guaranteed outcomes.
- The Options Flow surface and optional paper tools depend on account access; public guides do not expose private positions or place orders.